Political campaigns and politics have become more crazy, confusing and polarizing than ever before. What are political candidates and campaigns really thinking? Listen to an insightful and engaging discussion each week from the senior staff of Magellan Strategies. Each week veteran pollsters and campaign operatives David Flaherty, Courtney Gibbon and Ryan Winger talk about current events, politics, campaigns and how using voter data, technology and survey research leads to smarter politics.
EP 8: What Happened in Colorado?08/12/2016 Duração: 55min
In this episode we discuss the election results in Colorado and give our thoughts on politics in our home state. Segment #1 – Turnout in Colorado What did turnout look like in Colorado? Was it substantially different from 2012? Why didn’t Colorado “ride the Trump wave”? Segment #2 – State of the Political Parties in Colorado What is the current state of the Republican Party in Colorado? What is the current state of the Democratic Party in Colorado? How does the rise of Unaffiliated voters impact our politics? Segment #3 Unaffiliated Voters How did they view this election, generally? What issues, if any, were important to them? From the turnout we can tell that they supported Hillary Clinton more than Donald Trump…Why might that be the case?
EP 7: What a Recount Means and Where the Polls Went Wrong01/12/2016 Duração: 53min
In this episode we discuss what really happens during a recount, and then try to give at least some explanation for what happened with political polling this year and why very few were predicting a victory for Donald Trump. Segment #1 – Recounts What does a recount mean? What does the process look like? What is unique about these recounts in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania? Segment #2 What Went Wrong With The Polls? Where were the polls wrong? Why were they wrong? Was the problem more with the idea of modeling/forecasting, rather than the polling itself? Segment #3 How to Fix The Polls What is the solution? How much longer will telephone-only surveys be viable? Recap the issues with online sample/panels? We try really hard to get feedback from you our listeners about past shows and suggestions for topics to cover in future episodes. To do that you can email us at [email protected] or send us a tweet, our Twitter handle is @smartpolitics77. We really look forward to hearing from
EP 6: He Actually Won?!17/11/2016 Duração: 42min
In this episode we discuss the biggest surprise in American politics since Harry Truman beat Thomas Dewey for the Presidency in 1948. Segment #1 – Donald Trump Shocked the World and Got It Done Why did Donald Trump win? Were there changes to voter turnout compared to 2012? Was Donald Trump the reason the Republicans held onto the US Senate? Segment #2 What Does the Democrat Party do to Regroup? Who is now the head of the Democrat Party? What are their chances of rebounding in 2018? Are there silver linings for the Democrats that are not apparent yet? Segment #3 Thoughts About What the GOP Stands for Moving Forward Is it Trump’s Party? Where do moderate Republicans go? How should Republicans position themselves in future primaries?
EP 5: Election Day Predictions and Voting Trends07/11/2016 Duração: 37min
In this episode Courtney, Ryan and David make their Election Day predictions for president and ballot issues and comment on early voting trends in Colorado. Who will win Colorado and by how much? Using data, who will win nationally and why? Colorado ballot issues: right to die, minimum wage, Raise the Bar
EP 4: Colorado Early Voting Trends and the Election31/10/2016 Duração: 48min
In this episode we discuss early voting data, how to analyze it, what we are seeing this cycle compared to other historical trends. We also talk about some polling that was released and our general thoughts on where voter opinion is going. Segment #1: What Does our Latest Ballot Return Report Show Ballot Report: 701,062 ballots returned Democrats have a lead of 28,584 ballots returned. What are campaigns doing right now with 11 days to go? Segment #2: Where Do We Think the Election is Going for GOP Candidates Is Donald Trump improving or sinking? Are U.S. Senate Republican candidates going to survive? What impact will lower Republican turnout have on legislative races in Colorado and the statewide ballot initiatives? Segment #3: Thoughts About What the GOP Will Look Like After the Election Is it Trump’s Party? Where do moderate Republicans go? Will there be any backlash from the losses?
EP 3: The Republican Party's Challenges Attracting New Voters19/10/2016 Duração: 45min
In this episode the team discusses the data and trends behind the decline of voters identifying with the Republican Party, why we think this is happening and our thoughts on the final presidential debate. This includes taking a look at the raw numbers for the Republican Party, exploring why exactly voters are leaving the party, and how our numbers from the past 10 years reflect that. In this episode: Segment #1 – The Data Doesn’t Lie, Voter Registration The evolution of the Republican party by the numbers Segment #2 – What Do Unaffiliated FEMALE Voters Think of the Republican Party? 2014 Post Election Research with Colorado Women’s Alliance Segment #3 – Comments About the Presidential Debate Courtney, Ryan, and Dave discuss their thoughts on the presidential race and tonight's final debate. For full show notes for this episode, including all of the numbers and statistics discussed, visit the Smarter Politics website.
EP 2: The Art of Microtargeting, Voter Data Mining and Predictive Analytics for Campaigns06/10/2016 Duração: 36min
In this episode we discuss the fundamentals of microtargeting, voter data mining and predictive analytics. We talk about why this data is so valuable, how we generate it and how it can be used to give a campaign an edge on their opponent. In this episode: Segment #1 – The End Result of Predictive Modeling What is microtargeting and voter data mining? What is the process and what are the benefits of it? Voter file vs. on a modeled voter file Segmentation and its importance especially in unaffiliated voters it is Segment #2 – The History of Microtargeting Reflecting on time at the Republican National Convention The 2004 presidential election How the Obama campaign used modeling at a more advanced level Segment #3 – Microtargeting Overview and Process Difference between modeling survey questions and regular survey questions Why a large survey sample is needed Enhancing files with census data, consumer data, election return data Segment #4 – Using Modeling to Create Segments Our work in CO, NM and PA for
EP 1: Polling 101 the Basics of Voter Opinion Polling04/10/2016 Duração: 45min
In the debut episode of Smarter Politics, the team at Magellan Strategies break down what determines if a poll is right or wrong, how polls are conducted (including the differences in robocalling and cell phone interviews), online interviews, weighting, and why conducting an opinions survey on social media networking sites like Facebook and Twitter present big challenges to pollsters. In this episode: Segment #1 - Voter Demographics What are they and why are they important Colorado’s Registration Demographics as an example Voter demographics from the 2012 Colorado general election What demographic questions are important and what is irrelevant for a campaign Segment #2 – Survey Sample What is it and where do pollsters get it? Telephone sample, online sample, voter file sample Cell phone vs. landline issues for telephone and coverage problems with younger and minority voters What is an online panel and what problems does it create with voter surveys The potential of Facebook surveys Segment #3 – Weighting
Getting to Smarter Politics27/09/2016 Duração: 02min
Welcome to Smarter Politics, the Magellan Strategies Podcast, I’m David Flaherty, CEO and Founder of Magellan Strategies. However you came across our podcast, we are glad to have you. If you’re looking for breathless coverage of the Presidential Election, or listen to a so-called “political strategist” commenting on each and every word of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, or a bean counter dissect the latest polls, you’re welcome to stick around but this is not that kind of podcast. That’s not to say that we won’t talk about the polls, the political headlines, and public policy debates, believe me we will have plenty of that. Each week, we’re going to take our listeners on a deep dive into how smart campaigns really work. We are going to talk about how smart campaigns target voters using data. We are going to talk about how to understand what voters really think using survey research. We are going to talk about why all voters are not all the same, and how smart campaigns know which voters to contact and which